2010 Congressional Redistricting Forecast

Overview

In the year following the decennial census, states redraw their legislative districts in order to balance their populations to ensure all people have equal representation. This mechanical-sounding adjustment is required by the federal constitution, but much more takes place. Party leaders can use redistricting as an opportunity to help their incumbents win reelection by swapping undesirable constituents with those more favorable to the party, they can attempt to expand their majorities by creating new districts that their party may win, and they can wreak havoc on their opponents by grouping their incumbents together and diminishing their reelection chances by manipulating their constituencies. These redistricting strategies have a special name, gerrymandering.

The 2010 midterm elections are important not only for who will control offices until the next election, but also because 2011 is a redistricting year. Republicans are poised to gain a substantial number of seats in the House of Representatives and control of a number of governor and state legislative chambers in the 2010 midterm elections.

It is true that winning seats and control of the redistricting process can be beneficial to a party. However, close examination of the three-dimensional chess game that is apportionment, redistricting, and the 2010 elections suggests that Republican have a limited upside to redistricting beyond the congressional seats they gained in 2010.

In winning control of the House of Representatives, they did so in large part by sweeping elections in large battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, states that Republicans also won control of the state government and the redistricting process. Republicans will need to defend their newly elected freshman, and here is their dilemma. To protect their freshmen, they will want to add Republican voters to their districts, but the supply will be short since Republicans will have won all of the competitive congressional districts in these states. Further complicating matters is that elections have become volatile since 2004; the margin of what is considered a safe district has increased. All incumbents will pressure their party leadership to beef up their districts with more red meat supporters. The upside to creating more Republican districts through redistricting beyond those they won in 2010 is limited. The irony is that Republicans would have been better off if they won control of the House of Representatives with narrower margins in these states so that they did not have to spread too many Republicans among too many districts to protect many vulnerable freshmen during redistricting.

In states like Georgia and Texas, where Republicans will likely control the process and seemingly have a lot of power, they already hold near the maximum number of congressional seats they can expect to win, as the remainder are mostly voting rights districts. At best, Republicans may be able to craft new districts gained through apportionment to their favor.

Important Questions to be Addressed

How will the 2010 midterm elections affect the impending congressional redistricting? There are several puzzle pieces that must be fit together to answer this question:

1. What will be the distribution of congressional seats to the states following the next apportionment? The Census Bureau announced the number of congressional seats awarded to each state.
   
2. What is a state's redistricting process? States determine who draws the lines in their state. Eight states use commissions for congressional redistricting either in an advisory role to the legislature or as the sole redistricting authority. The number of commission states will increase to nine if California voters adopt Proposition 20 in the general election (a Sept. 22 PPP poll has Prop. 20 leading 40% to 16%). All remaining states except one uses the regular legislative process. In North Carolina, the legislature has sole authority without a role for the governor. For insights, see the descriptions provided under this website's state redistricting resources and the Brennan Center's Citizen's Guide to Redistricting .
   

All states are required to balance their districts' populations. If a state does not produce a redistricting plan, one will be provided by a court of law.

An important process issue that deserves special mention is the Voting Rights Act, which requires the creation under special circumstances of Democratic-tending minority majority districts (except for Republican-leaning Cuban-American majority districts in Florida). There are two provisions, Section 5 and Section 2.
1. States covered by Section 5 - primarily those in the South - are required to draw the same number of minority majority congressional districts as found in the current redistricting plan.
   
2. All states are covered by Section 2 and may need to draw districts if three conditions are met. This may mean, for example, if a state gains a congressional district as a consequence of increasing Latino populations, that state may be required to create a new congressional district for the Latino community. These three conditions are:
• A minority community it large and compact enough to draw a district around.
  
• Minorities vote cohesively for their candidate of choice.
  
• Whites vote cohesively against the minority-preferred candidate.


3. Who will control a state's redistricting process? The map above identifies who will control the congressional redistricting process in each state based on an  analysis of the redistricting process. The National Conference of State Legislatures maintains an excellent web page -- State Vote 2010 -- that reports the partisan composition of each state's legislature and the party affiliation of the governor.
   
4. Finally, an intangible factor will be party leaders' redistricting strategies. Pennsylvania Republicans and Georgia Democrats learned the hard way earlier this decade that cutting their districts' margins too thin provided opportunities for the other party to win seats. Given the volatility in recent elections, party leaders may take a risk-adverse gerrymandering approach that favors creating safer districts over creating more opportunities for their candidates to win. Republicans may particularly be faced with this dilemma in order to protect their freshmen elected in the 2010 elections.

State Summaries

California	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Bipartisan Commission
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Bipartisan Commission
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	32
Republicans	19
Undecided	2
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	In the largest state with the most congressional districts, remarkably only two congressional seats may change hands from the Democrats to Republicans. California election officials are still counting ballots so these races are still to-close-to-call. These are the 11th and 20th districts. In the 11th, the Democratic incumbent McNerney has a slight lead over Republican challenger Harmer. In the 20th, Republican challenger Vidak has a very narrow lead over Democratic incumbent Costa. A bipartisan compromise forged between the Democrats and Republicans during the redistricting a decade ago is one of the primary reasons why so few California congressional -- and state legislative -- seats have changed hands this decade. At the time, Republicans had threatened to put a redistricting initiative on the ballot unless Democrats created safe seats for them. The Democrats agreed to compromise in order to lock in their gains realized in the 2000 elections rather than expand their majorities. The irony is that Republicans reneged on their deal and placed a redistricting initiative on the ballot anyway. A coalition of good government groups and Republicans placed an initiative on the ballot in 2005 to create a congressional and state legislative redistricting commission -- but it was rejected by voters. One of the reasons for this defeat was that Democratic congressional leaders were able to raise considerable money in opposition to the initiative. In 2008, an initiative that created a commission responsible only for state legislative redistricting was placed on the ballot. This time it succeeded, with weaker opposition from state legislative Democratic leaders, many of whom were term-limited out of their seats. In 2010, dueling initiatives were placed on the ballot -- one to extend congressional redistricting authority to the commission and another to dismantle the commission. Voters overwhelming voted to extend the commission and rejected abolishing it. The commission's rules require bipartisan compromise between the commissioners who are citizens -- not political insiders. Ultimately, 14 members will be selected, 4 registered Democrats, 4 registered Republicans, and 6 members who are not registered with either party. Approval of a map requires the votes to 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans, and 3 other commissioners. The commission's operating rules are explained on the commission's website.

Colorado	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Likely Redistricting Control	Divided Government
Governor	Democrat
State Senate	Democrat
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	3
Republicans	4
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	A bipartisan compromise that seeks safety for both party's congressional members seems most likely for Colorado's congressional redistricting. The state uses the regular legislative process for congressional redistricting and partisan control of the state legislature is divided. Control of the congressional delegation is fairly evenly split among 3 Democrats and 4 Republicans. A wrinkle here may be that the two Republicans takeaways in the 3rd and 4th districts were won with less than 55% of the vote. While the state is not expected to gain a congressional seat through apportionment, the Denver area has grown in population. A compromise will have to reflect this growth while simultaneously boosting the safety of the two Republican freshmen. Accomplishing these simultaneous goals is likely possible, but may require some tough negotiating between the two parties.

Connecticut	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Bipartisan Advisory Commission -> Legislature -> Backup Bipartisan Commission
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Likely Redistricting Control	Bipartisan Commission
Governor	No Veto
State Senate	Democrat, 2/3rds majority required to adopt plan
State House	Democrat, 2/3rds majority required to adopt plan
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	5
Republicans	0
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	It may come as a surprise that Democrats do not control Connecticut's redistricting process despite their substantial majorities in the state legislature and control of the governorship. Article II of the constitution (as amended by Article XXVI) establishes a bipartisan advisory commission that forwards redistricting plans to the legislature for adoption by a 2/3rd vote -- Democrats do not have the requisite super majority and there is no role for the governor. If the advisory commission or the legislature fail to achieve bipartisanship, a bipartisan backup commission takes up the responsibility of redistricting. So, at some point, Republicans will have a say or the redistricting plans will go to court. Republicans may prefer a court-ordered plan simply to shake up the map some to make Democratic incumbents Rep. Himes in the 4th and Rep. Murphy in the 5th more vulnerable by dislodging them from their constituents -- both won with less than 54% of the vote in 2010. There is limited upside for Republicans here, though, since these two districts are stacked atop one another along the state's eastern border and are thus resistant to significant change.

Florida	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	5
Republicans	20
Apportionment Change	+2
Summary	Republicans control the state government and the congressional redistricting process, as they did 10 years ago. That control in the previous round of redistricting is one of the reasons why even before the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans enjoyed a 15 to 10 advantage in the state's congressional delegation. The state gained two congressional districts through apportionment. However, with virtually the only Democratically controlled districts being majority-minority districts required under the Voting Rights Act and given the huge advantage Republicans enjoy in this battleground state, it is difficult to imagine how many more seats Republicans can draw to their favor and simultaneously protect all their incumbents in 2012 -- an election that is almost certain not to be as favorable to Republicans as it was in 2010. There is an x-factor -- ballot Amendment 6 -- which received its required 60% support in the 2010 election. This constitutional amendment imposes a list of criteria on congressional redistricting that may limit partisan gerrymandering opportunities. The project here seeks to increase public participation in redistricting, but so too does the Florida state House. The Florida House is also developing a web-based redistricting tool that not only will enable the public to draw maps, but also allow the public to submit those maps directly to the state legislature for consideration. If someone in the public submits a congressional redistricting plan that does better on the redistricting criteria articulated in Amendment 6 and the legislature fails to consider it, expect a state court lawsuit that may very well be successful at overturning the state legislature's plan.

Georgia	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	5
Republicans	8
Apportionment Change	+1
Summary	Republicans are in control of Georgia's state government and redistricting process. At first blush, one might expect Republicans to dismantle the state's five Democratically-controlled congressional districts. However, the current congressional map is a Republican gerrymander instituted through a re-redistricting (Texas was not the only state that did this in the last decade). The current Democratic-controlled districts either are Voting-Rights districts that cannot be touched or contain sizable African-American communities. What seems most likely is that Republicans will be able to use redistricting to shore up their incumbents and add one more seat gained through apportionment.

Illinois	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Democrat
Governor	Democrat
State Senate	Democrat
State House	Democrat
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	9
Republicans	10
Apportionment Change	-1
Summary	Illinois is one of the few states where Democrats control the congressional redistricting process. Democrats will likely not be able to wipe Republicans from the map, however. Democrats are heavily concentrated in the Chicago area, which is inefficient from a Democratic gerrymandering standpoint. If Illinois loses a congressional seat to apportionment, expect the loss to come from the Republicans, probably from the Downstate region since it has not grown in population significantly. The Democrats may be able to put Republicans in the Chicago Collar Counties at risk, but other than collapsing a Downstate Republican district, the other Downstate districts should be relatively safe for Republicans -- except for the unhappy incumbents who may have to run against each other in Republican primaries. A Democratic gerrymander could result in as many as three more Democratic-favored seats and four less for the Republicans.

Indiana	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process -> Partisan Backup Commission
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Likely Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	3
Republicans	5
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	With Republicans in control of the state government, it is unlikely that they will fail to draw congressional districts and thereby send redistricting to a partisan backup commission, which Republicans would also control. So, one way or another, Republicans will control the Indiana congressional redistricting. So, what will they do with that control? The three Democratic-held seats are the 1st and 2nd in the northwestern region of the state and the 7th district in the Indianapolis area. Rep. Visclosky's 1st district is in the northwestern corner in Democratic Lake County. It seems unlikely that Republicans will carve Indianapolis into pieces to gain another Republican-leaning district at the expense of weakening the Republican-held districts ringing the city. The prime Republican target appears to be Donnelly in the 2nd district, who won reelection with less than 50% of the vote. Republicans may be able to shuffle more Republicans into the district from the neighboring 3rd, 4th or 5th districts. They could also reconfigure the 1st and 2nd -- which now run north to south -- so that they run east to west, thereby strengthening the Democratic performance of the 1st while making the 2nd more Republican. The question is how much of Rep. Donnelly's base South Bend area can be scooped up -- perhaps enough to force a primary challenge between Visclosky and Donnelly. Republicans will also likely want to shore up their freshmen -- Rep. Buschon in the 8th and Rep. Young in the 9th. Of the two, Rep. Young is in more need of help, as he won with less than 53% of the vote. I suspect we may see a merry-go-round developing around Indianapolis, where the shift in one district ripples around Indianapolis. The question will be how much safety the state's long-term Republican incumbents will be willing to give up to help out their freshmen. The 5th may be available for cannibalization if Rep. Pense in the 6th decides to move on. Because they are located in the southwestern and southeastern corners of the state, at the end of the day the Republicans may only be able to make incremental changes to support their freshmen in the 8th and 9th districts.

Maryland	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Democrat
Governor	Democrat
State Senate	Democrat
State House	Democrat
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	6
Republicans	2
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	While the Democrats control the Maryland redistricting process, there is not much they will be able to do. The two Republican controlled districts are the 1st and 6th, which are located on the DelMarVa peninsula and the panhandle, respectively. The 1st switched to the Republican's control, and a Democratic gerrymander could give freshman Republican Harris some headaches by reconfiguring the 1st district in the Baltimore area portion of the district. However, no matter what the Democrats do, expect this district to be competitive again in 2012.

Michigan	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	6
Republicans	9
Apportionment Change	-1
Summary	Michigan may appear to be a state where Republicans are poised for the largest gains since there are six Democrats. However, in the previous round of redistricting a decade ago, a Republican gerrymander resulted in a 10-5 Republican majority in Michigan's congressional delegation. Republicans may be able to place Democratic incumbent Kildee's Flint area 5th district at-risk. Perhaps Republicans will combine the 5th with the 9th, another Democratic district situated on Detroit's northern suburbs, but will not be able to do much to the Democrat's Detroit-area districts. The Republican's challenge may be to protect their recent pickup in the 7th district on the state's southern border while continuing to protect their incumbents elsewhere -- this may be particularly difficult if Republicans wish to collapse a Democratic seat. Expect some creative map-making in Michigan.

Missouri	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Divided Government
Governor	Democrat
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	3
Republicans	6
Apportionment Change	-1
Summary	Democratic Governor Nixon has little incentive to negotiate with the Republican-controlled legislature and there are enough Democrats in the state House to sustain a veto. Two of the districts held by Democrats are 1st in the St. Louis area and the 5th in the Kansas City area. The 1st is fairly safe, but it likely lost the most population, so it will have to expand outwards in the St. Louis suburbs. Republicans would probably want to see the districts expand southward into the 3rd district, won by Democratic Rep. Carnahan by less than 50% of the vote. This may cause the 3rd to ripple into the sold-Republican 8th or 9th districts. The big wild card is whether or not Missouri loses a congressional district to apportionment. It is right on the cusp of the pre-apportionment forecasts to do so. The state's population losses have come primarily from the north half of the state and from the St. Louis urban core. Sandwiched between these two areas is 2nd district, which includes the fast-growing western and northern St. Louis suburbs. In the event of a loss of a seat, the 2nd district looks at risk of being radically reconfigured along with the 1st and 3rd districts. Perhaps the 3rd could still be on the chopping block, with the 1st and 2nd expanding to incorporate it's territory and the 9th district in the state's northeast corner encroaching into the 2nd.

New York	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Divided Government
Governor	Democrat
State Senate	Republican
State House	Democrat
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	21
Republicans	6
Undecided	1
Apportionment Change	-2
Summary	New York is in a familiar situation: a divided state legislature during redistricting. Republicans have controlled the state Senate and Democrats have controlled the state House during the past three rounds of redistricting. The divided state legislature in a heavily Democratic state is an example of the power of gerrymandering. A typical compromise when a state legislature is divided is for the parties that control each chamber to draw a partisan gerrymander for their chamber, and the two chambers pass each others' maps in a bicameral log-roll. Republicans have managed to draw favorable maps that have helped them win control of the state senate, and will likely do the same again in 2011. A wrinkle is that when Democrats controlled the state government briefly during this decade, they passed a law that reallocated the counting of prisoners -- primarily housed in Upstate prisons -- to their homes for state legislative redistricting. Expect this law to be challenged by Republicans since it would otherwise make it more difficult to draw a map that would retain their control of the state senate. The typical congressional redistricting outcome that happens in divided government situations is for the congressional incumbents to put their heads together and draw a bipartisan gerrymandering protecting all. This seems to be the most likely outcome. The issue that may derail this bipartisan gerrymander is what to do with the expected loss of one or two congressional seats to apportionment. Republican gains in the state were largely in the Upstate region -- in areas that have been and likely will remain competitive. Where will the ax fall on the two seats that will be lost to apportionment? A loss of two seats may ironically pave the way to a compromise since each party can take a hit on a district. One Republican freshman who may have less to worry about is Grimm, whose Staten Island 13th district is not going away except through some extremely creative map drawing. Finally, there is the potential for a re-redistricting scenario in New York, like the one that happened in Texas in 2003. There is no state constitutional restriction on congressional re-redistricting. If Democrats win control of the state senate in 2012, while holding on to the state house, Democrats can execute a congressional re-redistricting in 2013 to put any Republicans protected under a bipartisan compromise negotiated in 2011 at risk in 2014.

North Carolina	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislature Only
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Likely Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	No role
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	7
Republicans	6
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	In North Carolina, the state legislature reigns supreme in redistricting, there is no role for the governor. (A bit of trivia: North Carolina's redistricting process is most consistent with Article II, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution.) North Carolina may be where Republicans can do damage to Democrats through redistricting. Five Democratic incumbents -- in the 4th, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 13th districts -- withstood the 2010 election by winning their districts with less than 57% of the vote. All of these incumbents will be on the Republicans list. Two Democratic districts that cannot be unwound are the 1st and 12th districts, which are voting rights districts. Democratic incumbent Schuler's 11th district may be the least at risk since it is located in the state's southwest corner, though it may not be too difficult to make some trades with McHenry's heavily Republican 10th district, bordering the 11th on the east. An interesting dynamic is that Republican freshman Ellmer's 2nd district -- won with less than 50% of the vote -- is almost completely surrounded by Democratic districts Republicans covet. So, maybe Republicans can put four or so Democrats at risk, but will have to be careful how they do it.

Ohio	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	5
Republicans	13
Apportionment Change	-2
Summary	Republicans are in control of Ohio's congressional redistricting. However, the irony for Republicans is that they may have been too successful in the 2010 elections. Four of the five of the Republican takeaways were accomplished with less than 54% vote for the Republican candidate and the fifth was won with less than 57% of the vote. The five districts that the Democrats managed to hold on to are heavily Democratic, offering few opportunities for Republicans to improve upon their thirteen districts. Somehow, Republicans must also protect all five of their vulnerable freshmen incumbents. Republican Speaker Boehner may need to lead the way by sacrificing some of his safety to shore up Republican freshman Chabot in the 1st district. Republican incumbent Schmidt reelected in the 2nd -- which neighbors the 1st, too -- is likely to face a strong challenge in 2012, so expect no help from there. Republicans will likely be able to bolster freshman Republican Johnson in the 6th -- which stretches along the Ohio River in the eastern part of the state. Most likely Republicans will be taken from Democratic incumbent Ryan's 17th district to the north of the 6th, because the other districts bordering the 6th also need to be protected. Republican freshman Renacci's 16th and Republican freshman Gibb's18th districts border each other, and the 6th. Republican voters might be found in the neighboring Republican incumbent Austria's 7th or Republican incumbent Tiberi's 12th districts, but neither of these districts may be a safe district in 2012 even before shifting Republicans to shore up the freshmen. Finally, there is Republican freshman Stiver's 15th district which sits smack dab in the middle of the state -- and all these other districts that need protecting. If this was not difficult enough, Republicans will be further challenged to protect all their incumbents while at the same time accounting for a loss of two congressional seats to apportionment. There has been talk that Republicans will collapse Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich's Cleveland district. I think there is a better opportunity for Republicans by collapsing Democratic incumbent Kaptur's 9th -- which stretches along the western half of Lake Erie -- and reconfigure the heavily Republican 4th and 5th districts, that is if Republican incumbents Jordan and Latta are agreeable to absorbing some Democrats. Dealing with the loss of the second district is more difficult, and may even force Republicans to sacrifice one of their own.

Pennsylvania	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	7
Republicans	13
Apportionment Change	-1
Summary	Republicans are again in control of the state government and redistricting, just as they were a decade ago. Then, Republican used their power to expand their majorities, and discovered that they spread their supporters too thin, enabling Democrats to gain control of many seats in 2006 and 2008, only to see those seats switch back to Republican control in 2010. While Republicans may be able to cut a Democratic district with the expected loss of a seat to apportionment, Republicans appear to be better poised to solidify gains than to expand their majority. Democratic incumbents in the Pittsburgh area appear to be most exposed. Democratic incumbents Altmire in the 4th and Critz in the 12th won their elections with less than 52% of the vote. Republicans may be able to put these Democrats at further risk by shifting Republicans into these districts from neighboring Republican districts in the 9th and 18th. At the least, expect the central Pittsburgh and heavily Democratic 18th -- represented by Democratic incumbent Doyle -- to be mixed up with the neighboring 4th and 12th. The population loss in the state has come mainly from this region, so it may be that one of these Democratic districts is entirely collapsed. If so, Republican incumbent Murphy's 18th district -- located on the state's southern eastern border and surrounded by these Democratic districts -- will have to be trod lightly on. There are a number of Republican freshmen at risk. All five of the Republican freshmen won their elections with less than 56% of the vote (Republican incumbent Dent in the 15th won with 53% of the vote, but there was a strong minor party candidate in the election.) Republican freshman Kelly in the 3rd -- located in the northwest corner -- may be shored up with Republicans from incumbent Thompson's heavily Republican 5th district. The fifth is also affected by the state's population losses, so it may be that the 3rd eats a good part of the 5th or takes Republicans from a collapsed 4th district. Elsewhere, freshmen Republican Meehan in the southwestern Philly suburban 7th district may be able to borrow from Republican incumbent Pitt's 16th district, using a three-way trade with Republican incumbent Gerlach's 6th district, which also needs to be shored up as he won with only 57% of the vote. Since this is a region where the state's population has grown, perhaps these districts may be made more Republican by shedding Democrats rather than trying to add Republicans. One the northeastern side of Philly is Republican freshman Fitzpatrick's 8th district. This district is located on the state's border and has few options for trades. However, the district is also located in a fast growing area, so perhaps shedding Democrats to Democratic incumbent Schwartz's 13th district may be the most logical way to support Fitzpatrick. If Republicans want to place Schwartz in jeopardy, they will likely do so by trading some votes from Dent's 15th, located in the center of the state's eastern border. However, Republican voters may be put to better use in the northeastern corner of the state where the remaining Republican pickups in Republican freshmen Marino's 10th district and Barletta's 11th district can be found. Population has also be lost in this part of the state -- though not as severe as the eastern portion. A collapse of a seat in the west may enable a shift of districts that ripples across the state to the 10th and 11th, enabling their boundaries to move westward to encompass more Republicans.

Tennessee	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	2
Republicans	7
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	With plenty of wealth to spread around Republicans can focus on protecting their three freshmen: Rep. DesJarlais in the 4th, Black in the 6th, and Fincher in the 8th. Republican have enough wealth that they may even decide to spend it on going after Nashville Democratic Rep. Cooper. They have to be careful, since the 4th and the 6th neighbor the 7th. The district of choice will be the neighboring 7th, represented by Republican Rep. Blackburn, but the 7th might also be used to shore up the 8th. I thus don't expect a three- or four-way slice of Nashville since it potentially upsets too many vulnerable freshmen. A competitive district in this area seems on tap. The heavily Democratic Memphis 9th seems out of the question to touch since it also borders the 7th and 8th.

Texas	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	9
Republicans	23
Apportionment Change	+4
Summary	Republicans control the Texas congressional redistricting process, but ironically it may be Democrats who find themselves in a better position for 2012 after the redistricting. Republicans have a commanding majority in the Texas congressional delegation after the 2010 elections, so they may be better off trying to protect their gains than expanding their majority. The growing Latino communities of Texas pose a significant problem for Republicans. In all, 14 Republicans represent districts with less than 60% non-Hispanic White populations, according to the 2009 American Community Survey. Most likely these communities will continue to grow and more Latinos will vote as they are naturalized and become socialized into American political culture. And in some of these districts represented by Republicans, as we shall see, Whites are a distinct minority. Texas is covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which requires the same number of minority districts as the state currently has. In every Democratic-held district except the Doggett's 25th district, the non-Hispanic White population is less than 20%. Doggett's district is 51% non-Hispanic White and he won with less than 53% of the vote, so Republicans may seek to put him at risk by shaking up his district. Texas gained four congressional seats from apportionment. Much of these gains are due to growing Latino communities in the Houston, Dallas, and southern Texas areas. An interesting situation faces Republicans with Republican freshman Canseco in the 23rd district, who defeated Democratic incumbent Rodriguez to be elected as the only Republican representing a Latino-majority district that is not Cuban-American majority -- the district is 29% non-Hispanic White. Canseco won with less than 50% of the vote and will likely face a strong challenge in 2012, perhaps from Rodriguez. More Democrats will vote in 2012, so Canseco is very much at risk. While Republicans will want to bolster his reelection chances, they will have to do so cautiously since the Supreme Court ruled against Republicans reconfiguring this particular district during the re-redistricting in 2003 (this was the only part of the decision overturning Rep. Delay's re-redistricting). It may be that to protect Canseco, Republicans draw a new Latino district in the San Antonio area and shift the western portion of the 23rd district northward. Another Republican very much at risk is Sessions, whose 32nd district in the Dallas area is only 44% non-Hispanic White. Since this area has grown considerably, Republicans may find it expedient to draw a Latino district to protect Sessions rather than trying to draw two competitive Republican districts. Similarly, Republicans may find that it is easiest to draw a Latino district in the fast-growing northern Houston area. Where Republicans have the best opportunity to add a district in their favor is the fast growing area between Austin and Dallas. A final Republican at risk is freshman Farenthold, (most likely) elected to the 27th district located along the southern Gulf Coast and which is 23% non-Hispanic White. This is another fast-growing region of the state, so it may be expedient for Republicans to draw a new Latino district here and seek to protect Farenthold. Elsewhere, Republicans represent safe districts. If anything, Some rearranging of the furniture may still be necessary since the areas of the state that have lost population are located in the rural areas in the western part of the state -- areas that are heavily Republican. Balancing the populations of these districts means expanding these districts eastward into other Republican leaning districts. While this may not put any Republicans at risk, this ripple effect may suck up some Republican voters who could be more efficiently used elsewhere.

Virginia	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	Yes
Redistricting Control	Divided Government
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Democrat
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	3
Republicans	8
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	There were no state government elections in Virginia in 2010, those we've known since 2009 who will control the redistricting process in Virginia: neither party. The Republicans control the state House and Gov. McDonnell is a Republican. Democrats control the state Senate, setting up the first time since the Civil War that the state has had divided government during redistricting. Republicans swept nearly every congressional district that they could, with the exception of Connolly in the 11th district, who barely survived with less than 50% of the vote. The remaining two districts, Scott's 3rd and Moran's 8th are not going to change much, The 8th is a Voting Rights District and the 8th is tucked away in the state's heavily Democratic area just outside of DC. Connolly's district is the next district out, and is situated in a competitive area of the state that has trended Democratic. I don't expect that Democrats will see much upside to a division of power that gives them 3 of 11 seats just to protect Connolly, whose district can't be radically changed anyway. I suspect that Virginia's congressional redistricting is heading to court, absent a bipartisan compromise of some sort. Further complicating matters is that Virginia is one of eight states where the governor has an amendatory veto, which allows the governor to veto with amendment. The legislature may accept any of the governor's suggested amendments by a 50% vote in each legislative chamber on each amendment, else the bill returns to the governor. The end word on the amendatory veto is that I do not expect it to affect congressional redistricting -- the most likely scenario is that it goes to court -- but it may structure a state legislative redistricting log-roll compromise whereby both chambers draw their own districts. Here, the Democrats in the state Senate must tack on their plan to the Republican's House plan. This way, any amendments the governor may make to the Senate portion of the plan may be rejected by the Senate. Indeed, in any state with a divided legislature, to make the bipartisan agreements stick, the state legislative plans cannot come up in sequence, otherwise the governor may sign one but veto the other. Another tidbit about Virginia is that according to Article 2, Section 6 the state constitution, the legislature only gets one bite at the redistricting apple to affect the 2012 elections. If one party took control of the state government during the 2011 state elections they could not draw new districts for the 2012 elections -- but they could do so for a subsequent election in, say, 2014.

Wisconsin	State Profile
Redistricting Process	Legislative Process
Voting Rights Act, Section 5	No
Redistricting Control	Republican
Governor	Republican
State Senate	Republican
State House	Republican
Current Congressional Delegation
Democrats	3
Republicans	5
Apportionment Change	0
Summary	While Republicans control the state government and therefore the redistricting process, the relatively small size of the state and the distribution of partisans across the state will limit what Republicans may wish to do. The two districts that the Republicans tool from the Democrats by narrow margins are the 7th and 8th. These two districts split the northern half of the state, so the corners of the state limit what may be done to improve Republican prospects here. Perhaps Republicans will try to inflict maximal damage to Democrats by shaking up the 2nd and 3rd districts -- both located in the competitive southwestern region of the state and both represented by Democrats Rep. Baldwin and Rep. Kind. There may not be much opportunity to improve the baseline partisanship of these districts in a Republican direction due to the purplish nature of the region, but Republicans may be able to dislocate Rep. Baldwin's and Rep. Kind's constituents by reorienting these districts from running primarily north to south to running primarily east to west.